ベイズを用いた圧力容器鋼の照射脆化予測の検討 ー予測精度のより一層の向上に向けてー
概要
An embrittlement correlation method is one of the most important techniques to ensure the integrity of pressure vessel steels in nuclear power plants. In Japan, this is being addressed in accordance with the Japan Electric Association Code (JEAC4201) that was constructed using actual measured data of irradiation embrittlement of pressure vessel steels. In the present study, as a key step towards developing more reliable methodologies, statistical arguments were made on the embrittlement data. Based on this, more appropriate interpretation of the conventional MC correction in JEAC4201 was made, and moreover, a new correction method was developed within the framework of Bayesian estimation. This new correction method will be useful to establish further advanced management methodologies using the probabilistic risk assessment approach.
