Reliability analysis of pipes suffering wall thinning based on extreme value analysis of ultrasonic thickness measurement
This study proposes to use extreme value analysis to characterize the uncertainty in estimating the wall thickness of carbon steel pipes by ultrasonic testing. The goodness of fit has been examined using experimental data measured from plate samples processed by corrosion test. A model is subsequently developed for predicting the failure probability of carbon steel pipes suffering wall thinning based on Bayesian theorem. In this model, the wall thinning rate predicted by KWU-KR model can be updated by offering measurement results and corresponding distributions of measurement error. Compared with the results from extreme value analysis, the failure probability predicted in terms of normal distribution could underestimate the risk of pipe failure.